First, here is how the points table looks after match No. 32 between New Zealand and England:
Team | Played | Won | Lost | Points | Net Run Rate |
1. South Africa | 7 | 6 | 1 | 12 | +2.086 |
2. India | 6 | 6 | 0 | 12 | +1.405 |
3. Australia | 6 | 4 | 2 | 8 | +0.970 |
4. New Zealand | 7 | 4 | 3 | 8 | +0.484 |
5. Pakistan | 7 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -0.024 |
6. Afghanistan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -0.718 |
7. Sri Lanka | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -0.275 |
8. Netherlands | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -1.277 |
9. Bangladesh | 7 | 1 | 6 | 2 | -1.446 |
10. England | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1.418 |
Remaining fixtures: NZ, ENG
Four losses on the trot had marred Pakistan’s World Cup dreams, which started with two resounding wins against the Netherlands and Sri Lanka.
But its win against Bangladesh, Pakistan moved ahead of Afghanistan into fifth place with six points. It now needs to win its remaining games to get to 10 points.
Further, at least one of New Zealand or Australia has to lose two games or more. Thirdly, Sri Lanka has to lose at least one game, preferably against lower-ranked Bangladesh.
Lastly, Afghanistan has to win only one. If it wins two, only one of Afghanistan and Pakistan will advance.
Here is how Pakistan makes it past the group stage:
PAK vs BAN - PAK*
NZ vs SA - SA*
IND vs SL - IND
NED vs AFG - AFG
NZ vs PAK - PAK
ENG vs AUS - AUS
IND vs SA - IND/SA
BAN vs SL - BAN
AUS vs AFG - AUS
ENG vs NED - ENG
NZ vs SL - SL
SA vs AFG - SA
AUS vs BAN - AUS
ENG vs PAK - PAK
IND vs NED - IND
* - Games which have been completed
Here, Pakistan ends up with 10 points while New Zealand and Afghanistan have eight points each. Sri Lanka too fails to advance with six points.
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