The 2022 T20 World Cup is heading into the business end with a potentially three-way race for the top two spots in Group 1, which comprises defending champion Australia.
Halfway through the Super 12 stage, here are the possible qualification scenarios for all teams in Group 1. As things stand, New Zealand is just one win away from firming up its place in last four.
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Australia
Results so far: lost vs NZ, win vs Sri Lanka, washout vs England, win vs Ireland
Match left: Afghanistan (Friday, Adelaide)
Australia beat Ireland by 42 runs on Tuesday to stay alive in the race for the semis. It is now second in the points table. That said, it needed to win by 75 runs to go ahead of England on NRR as well, which wasn’t the case. Australia has to now account for Afghanistan in its last fixture to reach the semis. Should NZ beat England on Tuesday night, that would do the Aussies a favour. If England beats the Kiwis and loses to Sri Lanka, and Australia loses to Afghanistan, the fates of both teams could be down to NRR.
New Zealand
Results so far: won vs Australia, washout vs Afghanistan, won vs Sri Lanka
Matches left: England (Tuesday, Brisbane), Ireland (Friday, Adelaide)
New Zealand is top of Group 1 with an extremely healthy NRR of 3.850. If it beats England at the Gabba on Tuesday, then not only does it seal its semifinal spot but it also gives a significant boost to host Australia’s last-four hopes. However, a loss for New Zealand against England on Tuesday could make for a tricky qualification scenario in Group 1. If it loses to England, and wins its last match against Ireland, the Kiwis will end up with seven points. If England then beats Sri Lanka, and Australia betters Afghanistan, three teams in the group will end up with the same number of points, thereby bringing the net run rate into play.
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England
Results so far: won vs Afghanistan, lost vs Ireland (DLS), washout vs Australia
Matches left: New Zealand (Tuesday, Brisbane), Sri Lanka (Saturday, Sydney)
Australia’s massive win against Ireland on Monday has made England’s life difficult. England’s game against New Zealand on Tuesday is a potentially must-win fixture. If England loses, its fate will be out of its hand, and it would need the Aussies to slip up against Afghanistan to make it through on Net Run Rate (assuming England trumps Sri Lanka). But if England beats NZ, then it will face Sri Lanka in yet another must-win game. If it wins both its remaining games and the Australia results go in its favour, then England should be through as the second-placed team. England also has the advantage of playing last in Group 1 and hence will know the margin it needs to win by to go ahead of Australia on NRR, should it come to that.
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Sri Lanka
Results so far: win vs Ireland, lost vs Australia, lost vs NZ
Matches left: Afghanistan (Tuesday, Brisbane), England (Saturday, Sydney)
Sri Lanka’s semifinal hopes hang by the thread following two defeats to Australia and New Zealand. Its game against Afghanistan as a top-four finish in Group 1 will ensure it automatically qualifies for the 2024 T20 World Cup.
Afghanistan
Results so far: lost vs England, washout vs New Zealand, washout vs Ireland
Matches left: Sri Lanka (Tuesday, Brisbane), Australia (Friday, Adelaide)
Afghanistan’s chances have been effectively ruined by two washouts at the MCG.
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