India’s lower-order statistical deep-dive: Worthy fail-safe but over-dependence can be costly

India’s transitioning top-order can’t rely solely on Jadeja, Ashwin, and Axar’s stability. Rohit Sharma’s team must enforce more accountability at the top to succeed this Test season.

Rocking rearguard: Ashwin and Jadeja’s lower-order batting resilience has helped India maintain its dominant home record in Test cricket. | Photo Credit: AP

India was tottering at 144 for six; a young and spritely Bangladeshi pace attack had sent a vaunted top-order packing in overcast conditions in Chennai, and the ageing bodies of Ravindra Jadeja and Ravichandran Ashwin were called upon to mitigate the damage.

The duo responded with a 199-run partnership for the seventh wicket, pulling India to 376 in the first innings, which Bangladesh could just about overhaul in two innings combined. That they picked 11 opposition wickets between them with their primary skill to script India’s 280-run win was secondary, and rightly so. 

India has lost just four Tests at home since December 2012, and the spin duo has been the centrepiece of this invincibility. They have been part of 44 Tests at home since 2013, of which India has won 34 and lost just three, translating to a win percentage of 77.27.

Despite 800 Test wickets between them, the Ashwin-Jadeja combine also tells a tale of a lower-order resistance with the bat that has allowed India to preserve its indomitable record at home in the longest format. It includes the grit and valiance of members of their spin tribe — Axar Patel and Kuldeep Yadav — who have extended India’s tail.  

Be it Ashwin and Dhruv Jurel combining in Rajkot for the eighth wicket against England earlier this year or the latter with Kuldeep in Ranchi in the same series, the lower-order has been instrumental in waging inspirational fightbacks to keep India’s daunting home record intact. Ashwin and Axar’s 114-run stand in Delhi and Jadeja and Axar in Nagpur were also key in subduing Australia last year.

When India last faced Bangladesh in the latter’s backward in late 2022, it was again the lower-order that saved the team the blushes. Ashwin joined forces with Shreyas Iyer for an unbroken eighth-wicket partnership worth 71 runs to eke out a three-wicket win in Mirpur, while the first Test in that series saw Ashwin and Kuldeep stitch 87 runs for the eighth wicket in Chattogram to help India to 404 in the first innings in challenging conditions. 

In what were billed as India’s toughest challenges at home in the last two years, the lower-order batters emerged as saviours. Axar was India’s second-highest run-scorer in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy against Australia, played on raging turners, and topped the charts with a batting average of 88. Meanwhile, in the series against England, Jadeja and Axar averaged 38.66 and 33.25, respectively, significantly higher than specialist batters Iyer (26), Rajat Patidar (10.50), and wicketkeeper KS Bharat (23.00).  

Sizzling southpaw: Axar Patel was India’s second-highest run-scorer in the last Border-Gavaskar Trophy against Australia, played on raging turners, and topped the charts with a batting average of 88. | Photo Credit: K.R Deepak

A cursory glance at batting averages for those who have played a minimum of 10 matches at home since 2021 further attests that lower-order rescue missions are not intermittent or miraculous instances. Jadeja has the second highest average (44.00) at home during this period, bettered only marginally by Shubman Gill (44.90). Axar (39.60) is fourth on this list, above Virat Kohli (32.05), while Ashwin (26.44) tops an out-of-favour Cheteshwar Pujara (24.53).

India’s lower-order, which entails batting positions 7, 8, and 9, has been doing the heavy-lifting largely owing to the middle-order’s (positions 4, 5 and 6) worryingly dwindling returns. Since 2020, in Tests in India, the lower-order has contributed 23.91 per cent of the total runs scored, up from 14.48 per cent between 2016 and 2019, while the middle-order’s share has fallen from 39.68 per cent in 2016-19 to 32.53 per cent between 2020 and now. Alarmingly, the middle-order’s average has plummeted from a whopping 60.78 in the 2016-19 period to 34.34 between 2020-24, and is now comparable to the lower order’s 31.92 in the corresponding period. Meanwhile, the top-order (positions 1, 2 and 3) has also seen a sharp decline in averages, dropping from 55.61 in 2016-19 to 43.03 in 2020-24.  

Tests in India since 2020

Batting Pos.	Runs	Average	100s	50s	Contribution
1, 2, 3	3701	43.03	11	14	40.76%
4, 5, 6	2954	34.34	5	17	32.53%
7, 8, 9	2171	31.92	3	11	23.91%

Tests in India (2016-2019)

Batting Pos.	Runs	Average	100s	50s	Contribution
1, 2, 3	5951	55.61	20	31	43.64%
4, 5, 6	5410	60.78	15	21	39.68%
7, 8, 9	1975	30.85	3	15	14.48%

Between the periods 2016-19 and 2020-24, the top six batting positions have all witnessed a steep decline in averages in home Tests, with the No. 4 spot suffering the sharpest drop — from 82.06 to 29.80. This drastic fall coincides with No. 4 mainstay Kohli’s dip in form, whose average has shrunk from 86.35 to 33.16 in that position at home between the corresponding periods. Interestingly, India’s No. 7 (38.47) and 8 (36.78) boast of a higher average than No. 4 (29.80) and 5 (33.86) since 2020 in home games.  

The No. 5 position, earlier held by Ajinkya Rahane, is likely to see some stability with the return of Rishabh Pant and the emergence of Sarfaraz Khan, after Iyer’s unsuccessful bid to cement the spot.

The recent struggles of the middle-order, that have necessitated the lower-order’s rescue acts, coincided with a period when India opted for more result-oriented and spin-friendly pitches.

From averaging 119.8 at home against spinners in 2019, the top-six averages 49.13 in 2024, still an improvement on a dismal 25.9 from the previous year.

Moreover, the top six batters are over two times more susceptible to spin bowling in home Tests compared to 2019, when they lost a wicket every 160 balls, compared to 56 in 2023 and 76 in 2024. 

However, the same period saw a drastic uptick in the ability of the lower-order to tackle spin, with its average against the tweakers rising from 19.60 in 2019 to 47.25 in 2022, before dipping again to 35.60 and 33.56 in 2023 and 2024, respectively.

Thus, in two (2022 and 2023) of the last four years, the lower-order has fared better against spin than the top-six batters.

The importance of lower-order runs has also reflected in India’s team selections, with Axar often pipping Kuldeep to the playing XI owing to his greater batting ability, or Jadeja being preferred over Ashwin in overseas Tests for similar reasons.

With India hamstrung by the lack of a genuine seam-bowling all-rounder, the team has relied on Shardul Thakur for the cushion of some extra runs in the lower order overseas despite his average of 19.47, batting largely at No. 8, not inspiring much confidence.  

Dip in form: Virat Kohli’s home batting average at No. 4 has dropped to 33.16 between 2020 and 2024. | Photo Credit: AP

But new head coach Gautam Gambhir isn’t losing his sleep over trying to develop a fast-bowling all-rounder, which could also be an asset in increasingly pacer-friendly conditions back home.

“We’ve been talking about it since Kapil Dev that we don’t have a fast-bowling all-rounder. If we don’t have it, we don’t have it,” he had said ahead of the first Test against Bangladesh.

Gambhir, instead, found occasion to celebrate India’s bevy of spin-bowling all-rounders, who fittingly repaid their coach’s faith.

“We have to manage people like Jadeja, Axar and Ashwin, who’s got five [six] Test hundreds. Washi [Washington Sundar] is there as well. So, we’ve got quality all-rounders... Tell me how many international sides have a spin bowling all-rounder? There are not many sides who’ve got a spin bowling all-rounder. India’s got that luxury,” he added.

With India getting its long Test season underway with a top and middle-order in transition, Rohit Sharma and his men have a dependable fail-safe in Jadeja and Ashwin, and by extension, Axar. They would, however, do well to limit their dependence on that luxury and seek more accountability at the top as India’s challenges will only mount in its bid for a third consecutive berth in the final of the World Test Championship.