Euro 2024: How can Romania qualify for the round of 16 from Group E?

Romania, playing its sixth European Championship, started with a commanding 3-0 win over Ukraine but fell to Belgium in its next game, suffering a 0-2 loss.

Romanian players celebrate after a win over Ukraine in their EURO 2024 match at the Munich Football Arena. | Photo Credit: Getty Images

Romania, which returned to the European Championships after missing the 2020 edition, will look to go beyond the group stage for just the second time in its history, at the Frankfurt Arena on Tuesday.

It started with a commanding 3-0 win over Ukraine but fell to Belgium in its next game, suffering a 0-2 loss. While there is a possibility for the team to play a draw and qualify, its coach Edward Iordanescu said his boys will look to maximum points from the game.

“We are playing to qualify and, yes, we do want to finish first,” Iordanescu said in translated comments, detailing the advantages of being top of the group: An extra day of rest and a potentially lower-ranked opponent in the round of 16.

How can Romania qualify for the round of 16?

Romania plays Slovakia, which lost 1-2 to Ukraine in its previous match, in its final matchday and following are the scenarios for the The Tricolours to progress:

Scenario 1: Romania wins

Romania qualifies for the round of 16 irrespective of the results of the other Group E match.

Scenario 2: Romania draws and the other game has a definite result

Romania qualifies for the round of 16, with the winner of the other game, Ukraine of Belgium, placed second and Slovakia as one of the best third-placed teams.

Scenario 3: Romania draws and the other game ends as a draw

If both matches have the same score, or if the game between Belgium and Ukraine is a draw with fewer goals than the one between Slovakia vs Romania, the group ranking would be based on goal difference and goals scored.

That would be done as follows:

• Romania
• Belgium
• Slovakia
• Ukraine

If both draws have different scorelines, the following scenarios are anticipated:

If the match between Slovakia and Romania ends as a goalless draw and the one between Belgium and Ukraine ends 1-1 or or any permutation where Belgium scores only one more goal than Romania in its draw, Belgium and Romania would finish as the top two teams from Group E, equal on goal difference and goals scored.

In that case, the head-to-head criteria is reapplied exclusively to those two teams, which would keep Belgium ahead as it beat Romania 2-0.

Slovakia would be third and Ukraine fourth on goal difference.

Scenario 4: Romania loses and Belgium wins

Romania will finish third, above Ukraine because of a better goal difference and head-to-head record. Its only hope of qualifying then will depend of the third-placed teams standings.

Scenario 5: Romania loses and Ukraine wins

Romania will then finish fourth because of a poorer goal difference and head-to-head record with Belgium and will be knocked out of the tournament.