T20 World Cup 2024 Super Eight Group 1: Semifinals qualification scenarios for Australia, Afghanistan, Bangladesh and India

While India has all but secured its place in the last-four stage after winning its first two matches and sits on top of the points table, Australia, Afghanistan and Bangladesh are virtually vying for just one remaining spot.

Gulbadin Naib of Afghanistan celebrates after dismissing Glenn Maxwell of Australia. | Photo Credit: GETTY IMAGES

After Afghanistan stunned Australia in the T20 World Cup 2024 on Sunday, the race for the two semifinals spots remains wide open in Super Eight Group 1.

While India has all but secured its place in the last-four stage after winning its first two matches and sits on top of the points table, Australia, Afghanistan and Bangladesh are virtually vying for just one remaining spot.

Australia, second in the standings with a win and a defeat apiece in two games, is placed higher than Afghanistan owing to a better Net Run Rate. However, a defeat against India on Monday could jeopardise its campaign.

HOW CAN AUSTRALIA & AFGHANISTAN QUALIFY?

If Afghanistan beats Bangladesh on Tuesday, the last match of the Super Eight stage, after Australia loses to India on Monday, the Men in Blue and the Afghans will sail through to the semifinals.

Even if Australia beats India, it will hope Afghanistan either loses to Bangladesh, or wins the game by a narrow margin. Considering Australia’s Net Run Rate is significantly better than that of Afghanistan, the latter may have to beat Bangladesh by a big margin if the Aussies beat India on the previous day.

Australia has a longer rope than Afghanistan as it can qualify for the semifinals even after losing to India on Monday, provided Bangladesh defeats Afghanistan the following day. With Afghanistan and Bangladesh’s Net Run Rate in the red, they are unlikely to pose a threat to the Aussies in the event of a three-way tie on two points.

INDIA ALL BUT THROUGH

Bangladesh, though mathematically still in contention for a semifinal spot, can realistically only hope to spoil Afghanistan’s party with a win as its Net Run Rate is in the doldrums. Meanwhile, with a healthy Net Run Rate, even a defeat against Australia is unlikely to affect India’s chances of progressing to the semifinals.

With two games left in Group 1 of the Super Eight stage, there can be a scenario where India, Australia and Afghanistan end up level on four points. In that case, India and Australia are most likely to go through on Net Run Rate.

Thus, Afghanistan’s best bet is an Indian win against Australia on Monday, and then it will have its fate in its own hands against Bangladesh.

T20 WORLD CUP 2024 SUPER EIGHT GROUP 1 POINTS TABLE

Team	Mat.	Won	Lost	Points	NRR
India	2	2	0	4	+2.425
Australia	2	1	1	2	+0.223
Afghanistan	2	1	1	2	-0.650
Bangladesh	2	0	2	0	-2.489

(Updated after AFG vs AUS Super Eight match on June 23)