How do you play a game? Any game for that matter. Do you play it to your strengths or do you try to keep it away from your opponent’s strengths?
On Wednesday, before South Africa and New Zealand take on each other in the ODI World Cup at the Maharashtra Cricket Association Stadium in Pune, this will be a thought experiment playing in the minds of both sides.
The principle in play is built on two counter-trends – South Africa is irrepressible when it comes to setting targets in this World Cup, while there is no better side than New Zealand when it comes to chasing in World Cup history.
The Proteas have bludgeoned opposition bowlers when they have batted first, scoring more than 300 every single time. But they have struggled while chasing, tumbling to a defeat against Netherlands, while scrapping to a one-wicket win against Pakistan.
Over the last two years, South Africa averages 6.37 runs per over (RPO) batting first. The number dips to 6.16 when it bats second. In this World Cup, the fall has been even more drastic – 7.60 RPO batting first to 5.30 while chasing.
The South African batters, who have scored more sixes and fours than any other side, have found the pressure of chasing hard to deal with, despite the influence of dew in several venues.
New Zealand, on the other hand, is a side unlike others. No team has won more games chasing in the World Cup than the Kiwis. In fact, they are the only side in the World Cup – among those to have played 20 or more matches – to have a better win-loss ratio while batting second than first.
No team has won the toss and elected to chase on more occasions in the World Cup than the Black Caps (33). Their win-loss ratio in such matches is 2.300, far ahead of the second-best team in this regard (among those to have played 20 or more matches).
New Zealand also jointly holds the record, along with India, for the most number of consecutive matches won by chasing in the ODI World Cup (five), which the Kiwis achieved in their run to the final in 2015.
New Zealand’s affinity to hunt down targets continued in this World Cup, with the team registering comfortable run-chases against defending champion England and Bangladesh.
Against Australia, in its last match, New Zealand nearly pulled off the biggest chase in the history of the World Cup when it came five runs short of Australia’s mammoth 388.
With the two sides preferring differing modes of operation, this brings us back to our thought experiment – do you hedge your bets on your strong suit or do you take your opponent to an uneasy terrain, along with you?
New Zealand skipper Tom Latham though underplayed the relevance of the toss and the resultant decision, which could determine the result of the match.
“Whether you’re batting first, whether you’re bowling first, you’ve got to do it well. We’re going to come up with the decision of what’s going to be best for us in terms of how we want to approach this game.
“Sometimes you could look at the opposition and what they want to do, but for us, it’s always been about focusing on us and what’s best for us as a team. So, we’ll discuss it during training and come up with a decision,” said Latham.
South African batter Rassie van der Dussen offered his perspective on his side’s varying success batting first and second.
“I think, yes, we have a ‘blueprint’ for batting first. But it’s about the fundamentals of building a 50-over innings. It’s been big for us to set the base at the top and really give guys like Aiden Markram and David [Miller] the platform to be at their most destructive. And that’s something that’s been working well for us.
“It’s almost a positive for us because we’ve been so good at batting first. The challenge is for us to emulate that when we’re batting second. Against Netherlands, we couldn’t manage that. The other night [against Pakistan] we managed it at stages,” said van der Dussen.
With dew set to play a big role in Pune – as witnessed in Afghanistan’s chase against Sri Lanka – the call made by either Latham or Temba Bavuma after the coin flip lands will be an interesting one - to chase or not to chase!
Batting and bowling first win-loss ratio in World Cup matches
| Team | Bat first W/L - Bowl first W/L |
| New Zealand | -0.635 |
| Australia | 1.449 |
| India | 1.221 |
| England | 0.343 |
| West Indies | 0.453 |
| South Africa | 0.972 |
| Sri Lanka | 0.314 |
| Bangladesh | 0.134 |
| Zimbabwe | 0.264 |
| Pakistan | 1.191 |
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