Euro 2024: How can Slovakia qualify for the round of 16 from Group E?

Slovakia comes into the final matchday with a 1-2 defeat against Ukraine but remains in the race for the round of 16, with two simultaneous matches deciding the qualified teams from Group E.

Slovakia players celebrate after scoring their first goal during the UEFA Euro 2024 Group E football match between Belgium and Slovakia. | Photo Credit: AFP

Slovakia started its Euro 2024 campaign with a win over Belgium at Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt on June 17.

However, in the following match the Falcons suffered a 1-2 loss against Ukraine but remains in the race for the round of 16, with two simultaneous matches deciding the qualified teams from Group E.

Slovakia will take on Romania in its final group fixture on Wednesday at Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt.

“Romania are a physical team and have a tactical game that is very good, so it is a hard match for us,” Slovakia coach Francesco Calzona told reporters on Tuesday.

“But we have our own style of play. I don’t like to change much of what has led us to be here in Germany, and therefore we will continue with that against Romania.”

“I like the fact they never give up. I don’t want to talk about one player in particular, I am afraid of them as a group,” Calzona said. “I am concerned about the whole team, they are a great squad of players.”

How can Slovakia qualify for the round of 16?

Slovakia plays Romania, which was beaten by Belgium 0-2 in its previous match. In the final matchday, the following are the scenarios for the the Blue and Yellow to progress:

Scenario 1: Slovakia wins

Slovakia will be through to the round of 16, in the top two, if it beats Romania, irrespective of what happens in the other match.

Scenario 2: Slovakia draws and Ukraine/Belgium win the other match

Slovakia will go to four points and will qualify as a best third-placed team if it draws and the other game is not drawn, as it will have four points while the winner of the other match will qualify as the group-topper.

Scenario 3: Slovakia and Belgium draw in their respective matches

If both matches between Slovakia and Romania is a draw and the other match between Ukraine and Belgium ends in a stalemate, the group ranking would be based on goal difference and goals scored.

That would be done as follows:

• Romania
• Belgium
• Slovakia
• Ukraine

If both draws have different scorelines, the following scenarios are anticipated:

If the match between Slovakia and Romania ends as a goalless draw and the one between Belgium and Ukraine ends 1-1 or or any permutation where Belgium scores only one more goal than Romania in its draw, Belgium and Romania would finish as the top two teams from Group E, equal on goal difference and goals scored.

In that case, the head-to-head criteria is reapplied exclusively to those two teams, which would keep Belgium ahead as it beat Romania 2-0.

Slovakia would be third and Ukraine fourth on goal difference.

Scenario 4: Slovakia loses and Belgium draws with/beats Romania: Slovakia out

Slovakia will be unable to reach the round of 16 if it loses and Belgium avoids defeat.