UEFA Champions League group stage qualification scenarios explained

Here all the Champions League qualification scenarios leading up to the final round of matches.

This photograph, taken on August 25, 2022, shows the UEFA Champions League football trophy cup during the draw for the UEFA Champions League football tournament 2022-2023 in Istanbul. | Photo Credit: AFP/OZAN KOSE

Which teams has qualified for the Round of 16?

Group A: Napoli, Liverpool

Group B: Club Brugge, FC Porto

Group C: Bayern Munich, Inter

Group D: TBD, TBD

Group E: Chelsea, TBD

Group F: Real Madrid, TBD

Group G: Man City, Borussia Dortmund

Group H: Paris Saint-Germain, Benfica

Group A scenarios and permutations

• Napoli (15 points): Napoli has already qualified for the knockouts. Napoli can top the group with a win or a draw or a defeat by a margin smaller than four goals against Liverpool next wee.
• Liverpool (12 points): Liverpool has secured its qualification and can top the group only if it beats Napoli by a margin of four goals next week.
• Ajax (three points): Ajax can’t qualify for the Champions League round of 16.
• Rangers (zero points): Rangers is out of the race for the knockout stages of the Champions League.

Group B scenarios and permutations

• Club Brugge (10 points): Club Brugge has already qualified for the knockouts and can secure the top spot with a win against Bayer Leverkusen in the last round.
• FC Porto (nine points): Porto qualified for the knockout stage after beating Club Brugge in round 5. It has a chance to finish on top of the group if it succeeds in bettering Club Brugge’s result on final day.
• Atlético Madrid (five points): Atletico is out of the race after 2-2 draw with Bayer Leverkusen in round 5.
• Bayer Leverkusen (four points): Leverkusen out of the race after 2-2 draw with Atletico Madrid in round 5.

Group C scenarios and permutations

• Bayern Munich (15 points): Bayern has qualified for knockouts and will top the group after its win over Barcelona
• Inter Milan (10 points): With its win over Plzen, Inter sealed its spot and will go into knockouts as the second-placed team from the group.
• Barcelona (four points): Barcelona is out of the Champions League and into Europa League even before its defeat to Bayern.
• Viktoria Plzen (zero points): Viktoria Plzen is out from the KO and Europa League race.

Group D scenarios and permutations

• Tottenham (eight points): Tottenham can qualify for the knockouts with just a draw against Marseille in round 6.
• Sporting CP (seven points): Sporting will play Frankfurt in round 6. A win will assure a spot in KO, a draw would mean it needs Tottenham to win against Marseille.
• Eintracht Frankfurt (seven points): It would need an outright win against Sporting to secure qualification.
• Marseille (six points): Marseille is in the least comfortable position in the group and can qualify for the KO only if it beats Tottenham in the final day.

Group E scenarios and permutations

• Chelsea (10 points): Chelsea has qualified for knockouts as Group E winners due to superior head-to-head record AC Milan.
• AC Milan (seven points): Milan can qualify for knockout stages with a win or draw against RB Salzburg in Round 6. It has already secured a place in the Europa League.
• RB Salzburg (six points): Salzburg can qualify for the knockout stages with a win over AC Milan. It will secure a place in the Europa League with a draw or if Dynamo Zagreb loses to Chelsea.
• Dinamo Zagreb (four points): Eliminated from knockout stage competition, Zagreb can at least qualify for the Europa League with a win over Chelsea.

Group F scenarios and permutations

• Real Madrid (10 points): Real Madrid has qualified for the knockout stage. Can win the group with a win against Celtic.
• RB Leipzig (nine points): Leipzig will be able to qualify for the knockout rounds with a win or draw against Shakhtar and is assured of a Europa League spot.
• Shakhtar Donetsk (six points): Shaktar can qualify for the round of 16 with a win over RB Leipzig and is assured of a Europa League spot.
• Celtic (two points): Celtic is eliminated from qualifying for KO or Europa League.

Group G scenarios and permutations

• Manchester City (11 points): Manchester City is the Group G winners due to its better head-to-head record against Dortmund.
• Borussia Dortmund (eight points): Dortmund is assured of a second place in Group G courtesy of its head-to-head record with Sevilla.
• Sevilla (five points): Sevilla has qualified for the Europa League thanks to a head-to-head advantage over Copenhagen.
• Copenhagen (two points): Copenhagen is eliminated from knockout stage and Europa League competition.

Group H scenarios and permutations

• PSG (11 points): PSG has qualified for the knockout rounds. It can win the group by bettering Benfica’s result. If both teams finish level on points, it will be a tie-break on most goals scored. PSG has currently scored 14 goals.
• Benfica (11 points): Benfica has qualified for the knockout rounds. It can win the group by improving PSG’s result. If both teams finish level on points, it will be a tie-break on most goals scored. Benfica has currently scored 10 goals.
• Juventus (three points): Juventus cannot qualify for the knockout stage. Can qualify for the Europa League by bettering Maccabi Haifa result. If both teams finish level on points, it will be decided by the most goals scored. Juventus has scored eight goals.
• Maccabi Haifa (three points): Cannot qualify for the knockout stage. Can qualify for Europa League by improving Juventus result. Maccabi Haifa has scored six goals.