WE now, with the European and Euro-Asian play offs over, have a much clearer picture of the coming World Cup finals. Argentina and France still look best. Ireland at the fourth time of asking have survived the play offs in an international competition. Germany have shaken off the traumas of their 5-1 thrashing in Munich by England to come through. England, who have looked so shaky since that epic occasion, are as unlikely as Germany to gainsay the forecast of that World Cup hero, Franz Beckenbauer, to win the trophy. Brazil, in a last despairing piece of brinkmanship, have just managed to avoid the indignity of a play off against Australia, and thus maintain their record of never yet missing the World Cup finals.
Typically gung ho, their manager, Big Phil Scolari, boldly asserts that his team - assuming he is still in office - will still be among the favourites for the World Cup. Hard to credit, for despite the fact that it won its last vital qualifying match 3-1 against a Venezuelan team which had been beating the best of late, it still didn't look impressive. Its first goal was badly blemished by an unpunished foul, Venezuela played much of the match with 10 men, and their most influential player, Arango, was not among those present.
Luizao, the Corinthians centre forward, scored two of the three goals and Brazil plainly hope he will at last solve their problems in attack; Big Phil being averse like so many managers of the team before him to bringing back the still prolific veteran, Romario.
Yet, looking around European football, you do wonder why Brazil don't make greater use of the talent available. Ronaldinho, the gifted, incisive young striker, has at least been recalled to the squad, the edge taken off his game by the long wrangle between his original club Gremio and Paris Saint Germain, who at last got the better of the argument and are now reaping the rewards, as his form steadily improves. At Internazionale, there is the precocious 19-year-old striker Adriano, though, alas, he is getting so few starting chances in an Inter team where strikers are super abundant.
Argentina, who so easily won the South American group, have almost a superfluity of talent and are less reliant than ever on the finishing powers of Gabriel Batistuta. Hernan Crespo is banging in the goals for Batistuta's rivals, Lazio, of Rome. Claudio Lopez, recovered from past injuries, has regained his effectiveness in the same team. And then there are brilliant youngsters such as the natural inside-forward Pablo Aimar at Valencia and Javier Savkola at Barcelona, not to mention such clever experienced midfielders as Gallardo and Ortega. The defence's grouped solidly around Roma's Walter Samuel.
France hold both the World Cup and the European titles, yet they don't wholly convince me. The talent is abundant. Patrick Vieira, more dominant than ever in midfield, Robert Pires, a key figure in the victory against Italy in the final of Euro 2000, now a much more versatile and dangerous figure. Strikers Thierry Henry, with his pace, and Juventus' David Trezeguet, scorer of the winner in Euro 2000's final, the elements so lacking when France won the 1998 World Cup.
Yet, with the fading and retirement of Laurent Blanc, the obvious fallibility of a Frank Leboeuf who still somehow seems to hold his place, central defence remains a problem, while for all his ability, the periodic eccentricities of Fabien Barthez in goal can still give comfort, not to mention goals, to the opposition.
Germany in the event, comfortably got the better in the play-offs of a Ukrainian team whose defence in Dortmund was a bad joke. Every single German cross threatened a goal, and the 4-1 margin flatters the team's image. If in due course they can get back the Bayern Munich pair in midfield, Mehmet Scholl and Jens Jeremies, and at last find decent strikers the future could look brighter, and it's probably fair to say that the 5-1 surrender against England was an isolated lapse; just as England's staggering success that day was an isolated triumph.
For since then, the English team has wavered and almost crumbled; not least at home to a Greek team which frightened it to death in its last qualifying game and which was probably cheated by David Beckham's breathlessly late free kick equaliser. England are hugely dependent on the speed and opportunism of Michael Owen and must pray that his hamstrings stand firm in South East Asia.
Beckham, though absurdly overpraised (just try to compare him with his Manchester United predecessor, George Best) has certainly grown in stature and maturity, making the most of that superlative right foot, and taking on himself the burden of responsibility and captaincy. But the central defence is vulnerable, the goalkeeping inconsistent, the lack of real guile in midfield all too apparent.
Ireland surpassed themselves in surviving a group which included Portugal and the eliminated Dutch. They shouldn't have been forced to confront Iran in those play offs, any more than Australia should have been obliged to meet Uruguay. Oceania deserve automatic qualification. And with Roy Keane and Damien Duff fit and included, the Irish could trouble the opposition in 2002. A great deal more than they did without both players in Teheran, where they never had a shot or header on goal.
South Korea? Maybe they will at long last win a game in the World Cup finals after 48 years! Japan? Well organised in defence and so short of finishing power, despite Hidetoshi Nakata. Argentina look the best bet in a somewhat disappointing field.
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