India vs Pakistan semifinal ODI World Cup scenarios: points table and likely chances of IND v PAK in semis

At eight points from eight games, Pakistan needs to win its final match against England to keep its semifinals hopes alive.

Published : Nov 08, 2023 15:54 IST , CHENNAI - 2 MINS READ

Pakistan celebrates a wicket against New Zealand.
Pakistan celebrates a wicket against New Zealand. | Photo Credit: AP

Pakistan celebrates a wicket against New Zealand. | Photo Credit: AP

With eight wins from eight matches, India sits at the top of the points table of the ICC ODI World Cup 2023. 

Its last win, against South Africa, ensured it would end the round-robin stage at the top of the table. As a result, Rohit & Co. will face the fourth-placed team in the semis. 

Australia’s win against Afghanistan on Tuesday secured it a semifinal berth and ensured it would end in either second or third place. South Africa, at 12 points, the same as Australia, will also finish either second or third. 

This means it is a three-way faceoff between Afghanistan, New Zealand, and Pakistan for the fourth spot. The Netherlands is practically out of the race but still in mathematical contention.

Hence, Pakistan will have to end up in fourth place for another India vs. Pakistan match at the World Cup.

Here is how the points table looks after Game No. 39:

Team Played Won Lost Points Net Run Rate
1. India (Q) 8 8 0 16 +2.456
2. South Africa (Q) 8 6 2 12 +1.376
3. Australia(Q) 8 6 2 12 +0.861
4. New Zealand 8 4 4 8 +0.398
5. Pakistan 8 4 4 8 +0.036
6. Afghanistan 8 4 4 8 -0.338
7. Bangladesh (E) 8 2 6 4 -1.142
7. Sri Lanka (E) 8 2 6 4 -1.160
8. Netherlands 7 2 5 4 -1.398
10. England (E) 7 1 6 2 -1.504

Pakistan plays it final game against England on November 11, after New Zealand vs Sri Lanka on November 9 and Afghanistan vs South Africa on November 10.

Scenario 1 - Pakistan beats England

Pakistan has to reach 10 points to advance to the semifinals. If New Zealand loses to Sri Lanka and Afghanistan loses to South Africa, Pakistan will be the only team with 10 points, and will play the semifinal against India.

If either New Zealand or Afghanistan wins its final game, Pakistan will have to ensure its net run rate is better. At present, New Zealand has the best net run rate, followed by Pakistan and Afghanistan. 

Scenario 2 - Pakistan loses to England

If Pakistan goes down against England, it would need both New Zealand and Afghanistan to lose their final round-robin matches. Further, their margins of defeat should be such that their net run rates drop below Pakistan’s.

Scenario 3 - Pakistan vs England gets washed out

A washout between Pakistan and England will also require New Zealand and Afghanistan to lose their respective games for Pakistan to go through.

For New Zealand, just one point will be enough to get through while Afghanistan will need to defeat South Africa.

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