After its 0-2 defeat at Liverpool, Manchester City has 23 points from 13 matches this season, with just seven wins. Rewinding to 2020-21, City had a similar points tally at the same stage. However, that season, this marker proved to be the turning point, with City embarking on a 13-game winning streak that propelled it to the top of the league by the end of January and consolidating the position until the end to clinch the Premier League title.
City has since won three successive league titles. However, a record-extending fifth crown may not be possible this time. “A mini-crisis” was how pundit and former Premier League footballer Jamie Carragher described City’s situation on Sky Sports. Yet this feels like the end of an era for one of the greatest teams assembled in the league’s history.
A hallmark of Pep Guardiola’s four-peat side was its ability to overcome setbacks and come alive in the second half of the season with remarkable consistency. In each of the last four title-winning campaigns, City had unbeaten runs of 13 (2020-21), 15 and 12 (2021-22), 15 (2022-23) and 23 matches (2023-24). But this year, the air of inevitability seems to have dissipated.
This campaign seemed inescapable after a sustained four-season run of success. There was also the hangover from the European Championships in Germany, where City had the most representatives (13 players), affecting the defending league champion’s preparations this season and contributing to the multiple injuries it has faced.
Kyle Walker, Phil Foden, John Stones, and Rodrigo Hernandez, who all featured in the Euro final, were given extended breaks after a long 2023-24 season. Foden and Rodri, in particular, played 69 and 63 matches respectively for both club and country last season.
City is winless in its last seven matches across all competitions, a run studded with six defeats. This is the first time in his 16 seasons as a top-flight manager that Guardiola has failed to win a match in seven attempts.
This City team is running on reserves and lacks the devilish speed and relentless work rate often associated with Guardiola’s sides. When Trent Alexander-Arnold pinged a 70-yard pass from his half in the 12th minute, he was afforded the time and space by City’s midfield to execute the pass to Mohammed Salah, which led to the opening goal.
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Despite Guardiola’s enviable record, the Anfield crowd did not miss the chance to taunt Guardiola, chanting “Sacked in the morning.” In response, a provoked Guardiola held up six fingers, referencing his six Premier League title wins. Even at full-time, he went around the stadium, brandishing ‘six’, keeping with his tetchy nature in recent weeks.
Manchester City’s head coach Pep Guardiola puts up six fingers to remind the jeering fans of his six Premier League titles at the end of the Premier League match against Liverpool at Anfield Stadium. | Photo Credit: AP
The defeat at Anfield capped a head-scratching week for Guardiola, who saw his team thrashed 0-4 at home by Tottenham Hotspur and surrender a 3-0 lead at home in the Champions League to Feyenoord in the final 15 minutes.
Misfiring upfront
City’s attacking and defensive fortunes have reversed in the last seven matches compared to the first part of the season. In the first 13 games, City scored 2.8 goals per game (31) and conceded just 0.76 goals per game (10). However, in the last seven outings, it has managed only one goal per game while shipping 2.71 goals per game (19).
Erling Haaland, who catalysed City’s strong start to the season with 14 goals in nine matches, has found the net only three times in the last six. This season, City does not have the backup quality of Julian Alvarez, who left for Atletico Madrid, leaving Haaland as the main source of goals.
It is not that the Norwegian has been starved of service; City is underperforming its xG value of 24.9 – the worst among the top eight sides. In the league, Haaland has missed 13 big chances, the most for any player.
Foden, who enjoyed a career-high 27-goal campaign in 2023-24, has scored just three times in the Champions League and is yet to open his account in the league.
Rodri-shaped hole
The moment Rodri ruptured the cruciate ligament in his knee, City’s aspirations took a hit. It is well-documented how the newly crowned Ballon d’Or winner has been irreplaceable in Guardiola’s winning machine. In those rampaging unbeaten runs in the second half of past seasons, Rodri was a permanent fixture, bridging defence and attack with his positioning off the ball and control in possession.
In the 2023-24 season, Rodri ranked first for touches (3,988), carries (2,513), progressive passes (376), and passes into the final third (378). He also ranked second for possession won (235) and fourth for distance covered (388.53 km).
Before the 2024 FA Cup final, City had not lost a single game with Rodri in the starting XI, a streak of 74 matches stretching back to February 2023. During that period, City won the continental treble and another Premier League title. Guardiola has tried to replace him with Mateo Kovačić, but the Croatian has struggled in the role.
FILE PHOTO: The moment Rodri ruptured the cruciate ligament in his knee against Arsenal, Manchester City’s aspirations took a hit. | Photo Credit: REUTERS
Rodri’s unavailability has led Guardiola to experiment with several formations around the 4-3-3 shape he adopted in Rodri’s only game of the season in September. Against Liverpool, City’s midfield of Ilkay Gundogan, Rico Lewis and Phil Foden appeared lightweight on paper, and their counterparts duly exposed them.
City’s high line has been exposed recently due to its propensity to play high up the pitch. Among all teams in the league, City have the highest percentage (43%) of play in the opposition half. Without Rodri and with Kovacic injured, City has been vulnerable to counter-attacks. It has faced 14 shots on the break – the fourth most – resulting in four goals, the second-highest tally.
Injuries have also decimated City’s defence, with nearly all centre-backs sidelined at various points. Left-back Josko Gvardiol has been the only constant, but his form has dipped as well.
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City’s injury issues extend to the top of the pitch, with wingers Jeremy Doku, Jack Grealish, and Savinho, as well as key attacking midfielder Kevin De Bruyne, sidelined. De Bruyne, who has played just 402 minutes in the league, is gradually returning from a hamstring injury.
It is well-known that Guardiola likes to work with a smaller squad but this is still an expensively assembled group with City spending over £650 million in transfer fees since 2020. However, Guardiola has failed to get the most out of the likes of Matheus Nunes, Kovacic and Savinho, who cost a combined £100m. The decision to re-sign an injury-prone 34-year-old Gundogan in the summer instead of a younger upgrade seemed another misstep in City’s transfer dealings.
It will be hard to point to the injuries as an excuse when it also highlights Guardiola’s reluctance to dip into City’s much-vaunted Elite Development squad, which has the legacy of winning multiple Premier League 2 championships and FA Youth Cups. During his tenure as City boss since 2016, only Foden and Rico Lewis have established themselves at the senior level.
Amid speculation about his future and the impending trial over City’s 115 charges, Guardiola signed a two-year deal to steady the ship once again. If he sees out the tenure, he will have served 11 years as manager, a rarity in modern European football.
Throughout this lean stretch, Guardiola has remained bullish about City’s chances of a comeback with a fully fit squad. “My chairman knows it. I told him: ‘Give me the chance to try to come back and especially when everybody comes back [from injury] and see what happens.’”
Guardiola may get the chance to work his magic again at City, but this season increasingly feels like a write-off.
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