Australia needs a win after a historic defeat to Afghanistan in Saint Vincent. India is in a better position after defeating Bangladesh in Antigua, but its qualification isn’t guaranteed yet. If both Australia and Afghanistan win, three teams will tie with four points, and net run rate will decide the standings.
However, a win against Australia will secure India’s place in the next round. Australia can go through even if it loses to India. For that to happen, it would need Bangladesh to beat Afghanistan, which would create a three-way tie on two points. With the Aussies currently holding a better net run rate (0.223), they would just have to avoid a big defeat.
Permutations, combinations and mathematical equations aside, the conditions in Gros Islet will be closely monitored. England played South Africa in a day game here on a fresh centre wicket that slowed down as the innings progressed. The 10:30 am start time might affect the moisture level, making bowling first an appealing option. However, batting first and taking advantage of field restrictions could significantly influence the outcome.
As far as India is concerned, there’s little reason to tweak its combination, which includes three spinners. Mohammed Siraj is likely to remain on the bench.
Rohit Sharma has been dismissed three times by left-arm fast bowlers in this T20 World Cup. Australia will likely aim to exploit this weakness with Mitchell Starc, who could use the windy conditions to swing the ball into the right-hander. However, if there’s no movement in the air, Rohit could take advantage of the short square boundaries, which are less than 70 meters long.
In the last match, England’s spinners conceded 6.42 runs per over, while its pacers went at 8.84. Keshav Maharaj’s 2 for 25 was crucial in preventing England from dominating the middle overs. Australia will rely on leggie Adam Zampa for control during overs 7 to 16, where he has taken 11 wickets at less than six runs per over in this edition and maintained a high dot-ball percentage. However, Suryakumar Yadav, with his medley of inside-out drives, sweeps and reverse sweeps, could be a challenge for Zampa, having scored 54 runs off 27 balls against him in four T20 innings, with only one dismissal.
If Ashton Agar’s left-arm spin is deemed essential, deciding which fast bowler to drop will be a headache. Dropping Starc against Afghanistan left Australia without its primary new-ball threat, although Agar’s four-over spell was economical. However, Zampa and Maxwell are likely to provide spin in St Lucia, given India’s left-hand heavy top eight.
Australia needs to improve its fielding after a poor showing against Afghanistan. For India, Arshdeep Singh and Jasprit Bumrah are expected to stick to their unwavering consistency at the top using the wind to their advantage.
Group 1 of the Super 8s is truly heading towards a tense finale.
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