It all began at this stage. Argentina’s dream run leading to Lionel Messi’s ‘fairytale ending.’ It was Argentina’s 1-0 win against Brazil in the 2021 Copa America final that ended the Albiceleste’s title jinx of 28 years, who then went on to lift the World Cup a year later.
Twenty-eight games - that is the number of games Colombia has stayed unbeaten for and after a trailblazing campaign, its primary aim will be to prevent Argentina from repeating its heroics and break a 23-year title jinx of its own (Colombia’s last international title was the 2001 Copa America).
The Copa America 2024 promises to excite, with several stars on the foray. Past form, pre-match nerves will be out of the window and what will remain is two teams of 11 battle it out for continental glory. And one of the most relevant talking points ahead of the final? The tactical battle between two Argentinian coaches - Lionel Scaloni and Nestor Lorenzo.
Team shape and how they could lineup
Under Scaloni, Argentina has mainly played with the classic 4-4-2 setup. Emiliano Martinez, the only player to play every minute for the Albiceleste in this Copa America, will start between the sticks.
Nahuel Molina and Nicolas Tagliafico will occupy the right-back and left-back positions, respectively, while Cristian Romero and Lisando Martinez will be the centre-backs. In the middle of the park, Rodrigo De Paul and Enzo Fernandez will start in the centre, with Angel di Maria and Alexis Mac Allister operating from the flanks. Up front, either Julian Alvarez or Lautaro Martinez will start alongside Lionel Messi.
Nestor Lorenzo could go with the 4-2-3-1 shape like he did in Colombia’s semifinal clash against Uruguay. Camilo Vargas will start at goal. Davidson Sanchez and Carlos Cuesta will play as the two centre-backs. Daniel Munoz would have been the automatic choice at right-back but his semifinal red card rules him out for the final, making Santiago Arias a likely candidate to fill that role.
On the opposite side, Johan Mojica will be a familiar face in the left-back position. Ricardo Rios and Jefferson Lerma will play as the two holding midfielders. James Rodriguez will play in his preferred No. 10 role, with Luis Diaz on his left and Jhon Arias on his right. Jhon Cordoba will be the lone striker and will play the No. 9 role, although Diaz usually tends to join him and both play as a front two.
Possessional dominance and the battle of the counter-pressing
What makes Colombia a challenging opponent for Argentina is that it also possesses the same trait Argentina has excelled in - possessional dominance. Argentina and Colombia have seen plenty of the ball in this competition, with an average possession of 66.6 per cent and 57.3 per cent, respectively.
Both teams have the longest average passes per sequence in the tournament - 4.3 for Argentina and 3.3 for Colombia. However, Lorenzo’s team has been more direct in its style of play (1.27 metres per second) compared to Argentina’s (0.97). This essentially means that the midfield battle will prove to be crucial in the final.
| Category | Argentina stats | Colombia stats |
| Passes per sequence | 4.3 | 3.3 |
| Direct speed (metres/second) | 0.97 | 1.28 |
| Average possession | 66.6% | 57.3% |
| Possession stats while ahead | 50.7% | 51.9% |
| Pass percentage under high press | 80.7% | 78.3% |
Data courtesy: Opta
Both sides have resorted to aggressive counter-pressing throughout the tournament. This has helped their backlines by reducing the threat of opposition counter-attacks.
From an attacking perspective, it has enabled Argentina and Colombia to hit counter-attacks of their own when the opponent’s defence is out of shape during transitional play.
Till now, Colombia has completed 16.4 counter-pressing recoveries, 8.4 high regains, and 3.0 dangerous recoveries per match.
Compared to that, Argentina averages 14.2 counter-pressing recoveries, 7.8 high regains and 4.4 dangerous recoveries per game.
The above statistics show that Colombia edges Argentina in more recoveries and is slightly ahead on high regains. However, the Albiceleste have been more successful in finding the net from their high turnovers.
Argentina’s off-the-ball movement
The defending champion usually starts with a 4-4-2 shape but its shape keeps changing in attacking phases. Two of Argentina’s biggest strengths in this Copa America has been its constantly shuffling midfield and off-the-ball movement.
Messi, who has been Argentina’s chief creator at Copa América, generating an average of 1.63 xA (expected assists), has enjoyed ample freedom. He tends to start upfront as a part of a front two but often drops down in midfield to aid Argentina’s chance creation.
In the following visual from Argentina’s semifinal match against Canada, it is seen how Messi drops down to the tip of the centre circle of the opponent’s half, allowing De Paul to make a forward run and get at the end of a defence-splitting aerial ball from Lisandro.
Also, Colombia needs to be careful about devoting too much attention to marking Messi, lest it should open up spaces for players like Di Maria, Mac Allister and Enzo.
Argentina’s precise off-the-ball movement and midfield rotation have made it the best-attacking side in the competition in terms of xG (expected goals), with an average of 10.26 (9.5 if penalties are removed).
Making it difficult to score against
As mentioned above, the defending champion’s off-the-ball movement and midfield rotation have helped it create a lot of chances from high-percentage areas. The Albiceleste has scored four goals from in and around the six-yard box. However, in the final, they will face a Colombia side that has conceded just twice from open play throughout the tournament.
READ | Remember the name? Colombia’s James Rodriguez finds second wind
Lorenzo’s men have the fourth-lowest xGA in Copa America 2024 - 2.91 On average, opponents have managed to generate a 0.062 xGA per shot - the second-lowest in the tournament behind Mexico, which suffered a group stage exit.
With Argentina creating ample chances in and around the opponent’s box, it needs to be careful of losing the ball due to Colombia’s relentless pressing because Lorenzo’s men have started their build-up play right from their own penalty area. If that happens and Argentina’s backline is out of shape, then the Albiceleste are in danger of having a pacy runner such as Diaz make a run behind the defence and have a clear run at goal.
With its 4-3-2-1 shape, Colombia has pressed as a unit, with Diaz and Cordoba leading the charge upfront. While Argentina’s passing has been more or less fluid in the midfield, it might need to play short passes and then find the suitable moment for a progressive pass to pierce the Colombian backline.
This is because when the opposition has the ball, the Colombia midfield tries to close down the channels to prevent progressive passes. Therefore, expect a packed midfield, shifting the play to the flanks where the Argentina fullbacks like Tagliafico and Molina will clash against Colombia’s wide-central midfielders in Lerma and Arias.
Threat from set-pieces
Argentina would have to be careful not to concede cheap fouls, especially in Colombia’s attacking final third. This is due to the threat the Los Cafeteros pose from set-pieces, which has led them to score five goals in the same number of matches.
The special focus will be on Rodriguez, whose pinpoint deliveries can be lethal from an Argentinian perspective. The Colombia captain is in red-hot form with six assists and has created 17 chances for his team (both highest in the tournament) and will be a cause for concern for the Albiceleste. A plausible argument would be to man-mark the Colombia captain but that would go against the free-flowing football under Scaloni, where players do not always stick to their designated roles.
The following visual shows Rodriguez’s key stats in Copa America 2024.
To summarise, it will be Argentina’s fluidity clashing with Colombia’s compactness. It is unlikely that the match remains goalless, considering that both teams have scored in every game they have played till now.
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