Premier League: Statistical analysis of the title race between Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City

With nine games left in the season, the top three teams — Liverpool, City and Arsenal — are separated by just three points, promising to offer edge-of-the-seat thrills through the home stretch

Published : Mar 29, 2024 18:25 IST , CHENNAI - 6 MINS READ

For the first time in the Premier League era, the top three teams are divided by just one point after match week 28.
For the first time in the Premier League era, the top three teams are divided by just one point after match week 28. | Photo Credit: AP

For the first time in the Premier League era, the top three teams are divided by just one point after match week 28. | Photo Credit: AP

Defending champion Manchester City, third in the table, played out a goalless draw with Arsenal in a pivotal clash in the Premier League 2023-24 title race as Liverpool now stands top of the table.

As the tournament moves into its business end, with nine league games left, the competition is extremely tight at the summit. Liverpool is now on top with 67 points dethroning Arsenal which is two points behind while City is trailing by three.

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For the first time in the Premier League era, the top three teams were divided by just one point after matchweek 28, making it the closest and most exciting title race in the league’s history.

Throughout the campaign, City, Liverpool and Arsenal have been taking turns as the leader but it remains to be seen who can finally take the title.


Renowned commentator Peter Drury has termed the title race as a ‘10–game season’ since all three sides have an equal chance of lifting the trophy and it all comes down to the final few matches.

Looking at the remaining fixtures, it is evident that Arsenal has the toughest challenge.

All three teams are playing five home and away matches which makes it a level playing field on that front. However, the Gunners have significantly tougher opponents.

(*matches to be scheduled)

Arsenal is playing three of the ‘Big Six’ sides – Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester United and Chelsea – in the coming weeks. City just needs to play Tottenham whereas Liverpool plays Spurs and Manchester United in its remaining nine games.

All three sides will have to face fourth-place Aston Villa.

After City and Arsenal’s stalemate, Liverpool has a big advantage to take an early lead in this race.


Arsenal has won 20 games this season whereas Liverpool and City have 19 each. However, the Gunners have also lost the most number of games (4). Liverpool has lost only two matches, but its seven draws have taken a significant toll on its points tally. City has three losses.


Arsenal has been in flying form recently and has won eight out of its last 10 league games in a row before the draw against City.

Liverpool’s four-game winning streak was halted with a 1-1 draw City but it has won it’s last game against Brighton putting it back on track.

Looking at the overall form, Liverpool and Arsenal have won eight out of the last 10 games whereas City has won seven and avoided a loss, drawing thrice. This has given the edge to Pep Guardiola’s team in terms of points through this phase. Arsenal’s two losses in December came against West Ham and Fulham.

“It’s great because obviously it shows the quality. Defensively we’re conceding very little too to get results consistently and we want more,” Arsenal head coach Mikel Arteta said about his side’s recent form.

Arsenal has registered the highest number of goals, 34, in its last eleven matches. Liverpool is slightly behind with 30 goals while City on the other hand has only found the net 20 times.

Defensively, City is doing well with seven goals conceded followed by Arsenal (8) and Liverpool (11).


Although Arsenal is leading the scoring charts with 70 goals, the numbers suggest that its attack is not as good as it seems. Its xG (Expected Goals) of 57.3 indicates that it should have scored way less.

Liverpool, on the other hand, is leading the xG in the league, making it the best attacking team statistically.

In terms of goal concession too, it’s a completely different story for the Reds. It has conceded 27 goals but its xGA (Expected Goals Against) is 34.9, meaning its defence has allowed a lot more scoring chances compared to City and Arsenal, but has gotten lucky, conceding fewer goals.

Its difference between xGA and GA is the second-biggest in the league, behind Manchester United.

City, on the other hand, has conceded the highest number of goals (28) out of the three but its xGA suggests it has a more composed defence than Jurgen Klopp’s men.


The German, managing his last season at Anfield, also has to deal with an injury crisis.

Thiago Alcantara and Joel Matip have been ruled out of the squad for a long period. Trent Alexander Arnold and Diego Jota are unavailable for selection due to injuries and will be back in a week or two.

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Additionally, Allison, the first-choice goalkeeper, is also ruled out due to an injury he sustained during training. 

“It’s not a real problem to be honest, as long as you have the players available, you use the boys, you know what they can do,” Klopp told reporters.

Meanwhile, Arsenal will be hopeful since forward Bukayo Saka and defender Gabriel are back after recovering from their hamstring and achilles injuries, respectively.

City’s Kyle Walker and John Stones sustained injuries during the international break and could miss the next couple of matches. 

Ederson still hasn’t returned from his injury but Erling Haaland featured against Arteta’s side and is back in full fitness.


On paper, Arsenal will be the favourite to win, but football works in mysterious ways. Arteta would know it better than most, having lost in the title race to City in the second half of the last season.

Guardiola will be looking to win a record-fourth consecutive silverware in Manchester. “If we are there (title contention) we just need to win our games. It doesn’t matter if there are two, three or four (teams), we just need to do our job. The rest doesn’t count,” Guardiola said on the ongoing title race.

The game between City and Arsenal was important for the two sides, however, the draw has opened the doors for Liverpool to claim the top spot again and build on its lead.

The Reds will look to give its beloved boss a farewell to remember, who steered it to its first and only Premier League title.

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