Germany exit fourth biggest upset in World Cup history

Germany started the World Cup with an ELO rating of 2,044 and South Korea with 1,677.

South Korea's 2-0 win over Germany on Wednesday is the fourth biggest upset in World Cup history.   -  GETTY IMAGES

While defending champion Germany bowing out of the FIFA 2018 World Cup is shocking, it isn't the most shocking exit in the history of the tournament, according to a ratings system

The Elo ratings measure a team’s true strength by adding a weight for the kind of match, an adjustment for the home team advantage, and an adjustment for goal difference in the match result. 

  • Japan's defeat of Colombia is the 20th biggest upset in World Cup history (the Elo points difference between the sides was the 20th largest), while Mexico's slaying of Germany slots in at No. 27
  • The biggest shock came in 1950, when a hastily assembled team of part-time players from the U.S. beat favourite England, thanks to Haitian-born centre-forward Joe Gaetjens' goal
  • Senegal's stunning upset of defending champion France (2002) is the biggest in recent times and ranks third
  • The most notable knockout surprises are: Chile over USSR (quarters, 1962, 12th biggest overall) and South Korea over Italy (round-of-16, 2002, 15th)

South Korea's 2-0 win over Germany on Wednesday is the fourth biggest upset behind U.S. beating England in 1950, Algeria beating West Germany in 1982 and Senegal beating France in 2002. 

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