No player in tennis history has ever dominated a Grand Slam tournament and a surface like Rafael Nadal. Now that domination will end.
The King of Clay had won 14 titles at Roland Garros, an unbreakable record, until his finely tuned, muscular body finally broke down. Injuries have plagued Nadal since he turned pro in 2003, but a devastating upper hip injury incurred at the Australian Open in January kept the nearly 37-year-old Spaniard out of important preliminary events at Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid, and Rome. A practice session in early May that left him grimacing and covering his face cast doubt on his ability to defend the title he captured in Paris a year ago despite a painful foot injury.
Then, at an emotional press conference on May 18, Nadal announced his French Open withdrawal, saying he plans to retire in 2024 but hopes to reach the Davis Cup final at the end of this year. “I don’t like the word, but I feel strong enough to say it: I don’t think I deserve to end like this,” Nadal said in Spanish after withdrawing. “I’ve worked hard enough throughout my career for my end not to be in a press conference.”
Admirers of the tennis giant at Roland Garros will just have to gaze longingly at the six-metre-high metal statue immortalising Nadal on the grounds near Court Philippe Chatrier.
We knew the Spanish legend couldn’t last forever, just as injuries forced 40-year-old Roger Federer to hang up his racquets last year. But it’s still sad to witness another member of the iconic Big Three lose his battle against the ravages of time.
In this intriguing post-Nadal clay era, let’s look at the contenders and the predicted champion:
The Men
Stefanos Tsitsipas: “The way tennis is played today on clay, you have to finish the point at the net because today’s players seldom err on groundstrokes and are so good defensively,” observed former No. 1 Jim Courier. In theory, Tsitsipas, one of the elite volleyers, should take greater advantage of this asset.
Against the elite, his career records are poor — 2-11 vs. Djokovic, 0-4 vs. Carlos Alcaraz, and 0-2 vs. Holger Rune. If the favourites falter, however, the handsome, broad-shouldered Greek has an outside chance to reach the French final again, where he lost in 2021 to Novak Djokovic after winning the opening two sets.
Jannik Sinner: The 21-year-old Italian advanced to the semis or better in seven tournaments this season to reach a career-high No. 8. He made technical improvements on his serve by using a new takeback and tossing more accurately. As a result, he boosted his average first serve speed to 124 mph at Indian Wells, compared to 117 mph the year before.
Darren Cahill, who joined the coaching team a year ago, has encouraged Sinner to diversify his one-dimensional power game by mixing in drop shots and changing pace. To crack the top-5, he needs to improve his volley. Although Jannik has notched up three wins over Alcaraz, he is yet to reach a Grand Slam semifinal. If Sinner plays smart tennis and moves well on the clay, he could make the penultimate round at Roland Garros.
Casper Ruud: After a career year highlighted by making the final at the French Open, US Open, Miami, and the ATP Finals, Ruud came back to earth this season with a mediocre 11-9 match record going into Rome. A big forehand and a much-improved serve elevated him to a career-high No. 2 before he dropped to No. 4.
Despite the slump, Casper should gain confidence from this stat: he stands at No. 3 on the ATP Tour among the “Under Pressure Leaders” on clay during the past 12 months. The greatest player in Norwegian history will need to maintain that clutch play to reach another Grand Slam final.
Daniil Medvedev: After a disappointing straight-sets third-round loss to Sebastian Korda at the Australian Open, No. 3-ranked Medvedev rebounded strongly by winning Rotterdam, Doha, and Miami on hard courts. But Tennis Channel analyst Paul Annacone advised caution. “Clay is a work in progress for Medvedev.” Rune outclassed him 6-3, 6-4 at Monte Carlo, and No. 121 Aslan Karatsev edged him 7-6 (1), 6-4 at Madrid.
At long last, the 27-year-old, lanky 6’6” Russian is embracing clay, a surface he’s never mastered, as his career 7-6 record at Roland Garros indicates. He’s hampered by minimal sliding skills, poor court positioning, costly double faults, and a mediocre net game.
Carlos Alcaraz: The 20-year-old Spaniard moulded his game after that of the legendary Federer, renowned for his shot-making wizardry and incomparable athleticism. How well that style works on clay in best-of-three-of-five-set matches is one of the most intriguing questions at this Roland Garros. Alcaraz saw his 12-match winning streak—fashioned by his clay titles at Barcelona and Madrid—end at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia when 135th-ranked Fabian Marozsan shocked him 6-3, 7-6 (4).
Despite his upbringing on Spanish clay and the stylistic influence of his compatriot Nadal, Carlos, the early betting favourite, doesn’t have the shot tolerance for long, grinding points needed to win the French Open this year.
Also, his backhand occasionally falters, and he resorts to low-percentage shots. On the plus side, Alcaraz boasts terrific athleticism and speed, a massive forehand, a potent first serve, and a wicked kick second serve.
Novak Djokovic: The Australian Open champion took three weeks off before the Rome Masters because of the lingering effects of surgery to repair his right elbow. The 36-year-old Serb hasn’t regained the clay-court form that produced two French Open and six Italian Open titles. Fast-rising 20-year-old Holger Rune overpowered and out-steadied him 6-2, 4-6, 6-2 in the Rome quarterfinals.
Bumpy build-up: Novak Djokovic suffered his earliest exit at the Italian Open since 2013, when he was beaten by Danish star Holger Rune in the quarterfinals. Djokovic was eyeing a seventh title in the Italian capital. | Photo Credit: Getty Images
The setback meant that for the first time since 2004, neither Nadal nor Djokovic reached the final of the world’s second-most prestigious clay tournament.
In addition, it could presage the beginning of the end of The Djoker’s reign at the top, evoking memories of Federer’s stunning upset over superstar Pete Sampras at the 2001 Wimbledon, a harbinger of his future greatness.
Djokovic will advance deep into the second week, but one of the New Generation will take him down.
Holger Rune: “He kind of reminds me [of me] a little bit, the way he plays,” Djokovic said before Rune whipped him at the Rome Masters. “Really fit physically, great defence, but also a great counter-puncher. He can hurt you from both the forehand and backhand sides. Really solid serve. Aggressive returns. Just an all-around player on all surfaces.”
Tennis Channel analyst Prakash Amritraj gave a succinct evaluation of Holger’s decisive victory. “This is scary. But Novak was on the defensive the entire match.” Rune drew the right conclusion about his impressive performance. “If it’s working against Novak, it works against almost anybody.” The tennis world first learned that at the Paris Masters last October, when the Danish Daredevil knocked off five top-10 foes, including Djokovic in the final.
This year, the ruggedly built, blond Dane has eschewed the antics that used to annoy opponents, becoming a happy warrior that fans like. Cheers have replaced jeers, and the feeling is mutual. “I find it more fun to play in a crazy atmosphere,” said Rune during the Rome Masters, known for its impassioned spectators.
Although Alcaraz, the 2022 US Open champion and winner of Masters titles at Monte Carlo and Madrid this spring, has overshadowed Rune, the Dane will have his day in the sun at Roland Garros. There, Holger, who describes himself as “a huge fighter,” will seize his first Grand Slam title and join Carlos to form what looks like the new Big Two.
The next big thing: Alcaraz, long touted as a future Grand Slam champion, has dominated the ATP Tour in recent weeks. The 20-year-old Spaniard has shown the wherewithal to rule the men’s game. | Photo Credit: AFP
Dark Horses: Lorenzo Musetti, Francisco Cerundolo, Jiri Lehecka, Zhang Zhizhen, and Arthur Fils.
The Women
“If you are going to challenge Swiatek, you have to overpower her,” said former No. 1 Jim Courier. That challenge would seem daunting on clay, the slowest of the sport’s three main surfaces. However, much like the men these days, the women are belting out their groundstrokes, favouring power over consistency. They’re also blasting first serves regularly in the 110–120 mph range.
Another factor could jeopardise Swiatek’s chances to defend her title. “The courts at Roland Garros are quick,” said Monica Puig, the 2016 Olympic gold medalist. “They’re like hard courts with some dust on them.”
When Swiatek won 37 straight matches and the French and US Opens in 2022, she looked almost unbeatable. This season, she’s looked vulnerable, particularly against power hitters. “I definitely think other girls are dissecting more how to beat her and playing better,” No. 3-ranked Jessica Pegula said at Media Day in Rome. “You can’t really expect her to play lights out forever; nobody can do that, not even the best players in the world. I think we’ve all just pushed each other.”
Unstoppable force: When IGA Swiatek won 37 straight matches and the French and US Opens in 2022, she looked almost unbeatable | Photo Credit: REUTERS
Let’s find out who, if anyone, will dethrone the Queen of Clay.
Jelena Ostapenko: Cicero’s famous maxim — “Fortune favours the brave” — applies perfectly to Ostapenko. This go-for-broke slugger blasted a fusillade of winners to win the 2017 French Open as a 100-1 longshot. When Jelena is good, she’s extremely good. And when she’s bad, well, you know what happens. Before upsetting Simona Halep in the final, she whacked an astounding 245 winners but also committed an ungodly 217 unforced errors in six matches.
At the recent Rome Masters, the resurgent, 25-year-old Latvian blasted past 2021 French Open titlist Barbora Krejcikova, No. 8 Daria Kasatkina, and former No. 2 Paula Badosa before Elena Rybakina stopped her. While the bulky, 5’10” Ostapenko is the slowest mover among the contenders, she counteracts that weakness by staying mostly on offence.
Win or lose — and she won’t reprise her 2017 tour de force — Jelena is always entertaining with bold shots and facial expressions ranging from anguish to delight.
Paula Badosa: “She hits the ball incredible, but mentally, that’s the thing that has hurt her most,” said Puig. The burden of great expectations after a brilliant junior career overwhelmed her when she joined the pros and again last year when she rose to a career-high No. 2 only to nosedive to No. 38.
Happily, Badosa rebounded with decisive victories over Kasatkina at Stuttgart, No. 6 Coco Gauff at Madrid, and No. 5 Ons Jabeur at Rome. Don’t be surprised if the 5’11” Spaniard whips more top-tenners in Paris.
Veronika Kudermetova: “She’s like a wall. She’s so consistent and gives you no free points,” said Puig about the classic-stroking Russian. In the past 12 months, Kudermetova scored impressive wins over No. 4 Badosa en route to the 2022 French Open quarterfinals, Sabalenka in Berlin on grass, Jabeur in San Jose on hard courts, and Gauff in Doha on hard courts. Bolstering her clay credentials this spring, Veronika eliminated No. 3 Pegula and No. 8 Kasatkina to reach the Madrid semifinals and Qinwen Zhang, Maria Bouzkova, and Anastasia Potapova to reach the Rome semifinals.
Versatile Veronika, ranked No. 12, won’t win her first major in Paris. But she can beat almost anyone on any surface on a given day, so keep an eye on this talented Russian.
Jessica Pegula: Listed No. 10 in the early betting odds, Pegula ranks No. 3 on the WTA Tour. Notably, Jessica also ranks No. 3 in doubles, playing with fellow American Gauff. Her backhand, especially down the line, is one of the best, but the 5’7” daughter of the billionaire owner of the Buffalo Bills doesn’t have a huge weapon in her arsenal, and her flat groundstrokes aren’t ideal for clay.
The late-blooming 29-year-old hasn’t beaten a top-15 player on clay this year.
A hard-court specialist, Pegula upset Swiatek in January’s United Cup after going 0-4 against her last year.
Jessica described herself as “determined,” but that requisite trait isn’t enough on clay against Swiatek, Sabalenka, and Rybakina.
Coco Gauff: Vegasinsider.com’s third favourite status to win her first major title greatly overrates Gauff’s chances. She has seldom reproduced the form that carried her to the Roland Garros final a year ago. The 19-year-old American, once considered a sure-fire future champion, looked confused and almost resigned when Badosa thrashed her 6-3, 6-0 in the Madrid third round.
What’s gone wrong with Gauff? Rick Macci, who coached Serena and Venus Williams during their formative years and will now guide Gauff, says her “shaky forehand” is the problem.
On April 30, Macci tweeted he’d improve Gauff’s forehand, and it “will become her best shot someday. Needs time off with the exact biomechanical plan to reprogram the reflexes of 12 years and confuse the muscle memory.”
We’ll have to wait until next year for Gauff.
Iga Swiatek: The world No. 1 has captured two of her three major titles at Roland Garros, in 2020 and 2022. Swiatek’s forehand averages 77 mph, the same as the average on the ATP Tour, and her 2,479 rpms, average only slightly less. Her big forehand, slender 5’9” physique, and blazing speed are reminiscent of Steffi Graf, who won seven of her 22 Grand Slam titles at Roland Garros.
Swiatek won the 2021 and 2022 Rome titles, and before her 2023 quarterfinal loss against Rybakina, she was a terrific 11-1 on the season and 56-8 lifetime on clay. A right thigh injury incurred in the second-set tiebreaker eventually forced the 21-year-old Pole to retire at 2-6, 7-6 (3), 2-2. That gave the Kazakh three straight victories over Swiatek this season, the others coming at the Australian Open and Indian Wells. Swiatek remains the consensus favourite to take Roland Garros, but now the betting odds have become a little more even.
Aryna Sabalenka: The second of Sabalenka’s career breakthroughs this year may ultimately prove as critical as the first. The Belarusian outhit Rybakina 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 in the Australian Open final for her first Grand Slam singles title.
Three months later, Sabalenka became the first woman to beat Swiatek in a clay court final since 2019, when she prevailed 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 in the Madrid Open. “I’m super happy. Especially against Iga on clay, it’s something special,” Aryna said. “What she did last season and what she keeps doing, it really motivates me a lot to improve, to keep working hard, to keep fighting. I know that it’s always a battle against her. I was thinking of it when I was down in the last game ‘OK. I did it at AO, so I’ll probably be able to get this win again.’”
That confidence will fuel her relentless power game and could take her to the French Open final.
Lurking threat: Kazakhstan’s Elena Rybakina is also one of the top favourites in this year’s French Open. | Photo Credit: AP
Elena Rybakina: “She reminds me of Lindsay Davenport because she attacks with the serve and return of serve, so her opponents are always under pressure,” said ESPN analyst Mary Joe Fernandez during Rybakina’s exciting run to the 2023 Australian Open final. The 2022 Wimbledon champion also has former No. 1 Davenport’s picture-perfect backhand, but she moves better and boasts greater serving power, with first serves usually in the 115–120 mph range. “I love her service motion,” said former No. 1 Andy Roddick, a rocket server. “It’s rhythmic. She can hit all four [service box] corners. And that works on every surface.”
The 23-year-old Kazakh’s aggressive forehand would benefit from more topspin and less predictability. “If she can develop a forehand down the line, she’ll be almost unbeatable,” said former doubles star Rennae Stubbs.
“Despite being very tall (6’0”), Rybakina moves incredibly well,” pointed out Puig. The last phase in her development is to capitalise on her powerful serves and groundstrokes by coming to the net more. Most importantly, however, Rybakina boasts a confidence-soaring 3-0 record against Swiatek in 2023. Swiatek fell to Rybakina 6-4, 6-4, in the round of 16 at the Australian Open and 6-2, 6-2, in the semifinals at Indian Wells. In another critical rivalry, the slender, broad-shouldered Kazakh defeated Sabalenka 7-6 (11), 6-4 in the Indian Wells final, her first victory after four straight losses.
Forget Elena’s deceptive No. 6 ranking. Had she received the 2,000 points that Wimbledon took away from her last year, she’d stand No. 3 behind Swiatek and Sabalenka.
During this fortnight, the reserved Kazakh will overpower one or both of her toughest rivals to seize her second Grand Slam title.
Dark Horses: Qinwen Zheng, Mirra Andreeva, Karolina Muchova, Donna Vekic, and Camila Osorio.
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