Border-Gavaskar Trophy: What are India’s WTC final qualification chances and scenarios ahead of Australia Tests?

IND vs AUS: Ahead of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy Test series, here is a look at India’s qualification chances and scenarios for the World Test Championship final.

Rohit Sharma’s team India will have to secure at least three wins in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy against Australia to qualify for the World Test Championship final. | Photo Credit: AP

The Border-Gavaskar Trophy will begin on Thursday with host India taking on Australia in the first Test of the four-match series in Nagpur.

While the visitor is all but through to the World Test Championship final, Rohit Sharma’s men have some work to do to get themselves into the summit clash which is set to take place at the Oval in London in June.

Here is what India must to do to qualify for the World Test Championship final:

With a points percentage (PCT) of 58.93 from 14 matches, India is currently placed second behind leader Australia which commands a 75.56 PCT ahead of their last series of the 2021-23 cycle.

Sri Lanka (53.33) and South Africa (48.72) - third and fourth respectively in the table - are the only teams that have a direct chance of pipping India. Sixth-ranked West Indies (40.91) also bears an outside chance of toppling the others on their way to the final.

India’s WTC qualification scenarios: India has to thwart the threat of Sri Lanka which can push itself to a 60-plus PCT during its last two matches against New Zealand in March.

A 3-1 series win against Australia would just be enough for India to finish with a PCT of 61.92 and qualify for the final alongside the Ausses, ahead of Sri Lanka’s best possible result (61.11). A 2-2 series draw for India will help it finish ahead of South Africa’s best possible finish with a 56.4 PCT. It would also be enough for India to qualify should Sri Lanka drop points in its two-match series against New Zealand.

Beating the Aussies by a 3-0 or 4-0 margin would help India climb to the top of the WTC standings and initiate a toss-up between Australia and Sri Lanka for the second spot.

Best possible finish: Beat Australia 4-0, finish with 147 points and PCT of 67.43.

Worst possible finish: Lose to Australia 0-4, finish with 99 points and PCT of 45.4.

World Test Championship Points Table (as of February 8, 2023)