With two-thirds of the league stage completed, the race between the 10 teams to make the top four of the ongoing ICC ODI World Cup 2023 is heating up.
An unexpected twist was the International Cricket Council’s (ICC) announcement that the top seven teams in the competition will qualify for the Champions Trophy in 2025. Host Pakistan gets a direct berth.
At present, all teams are in the fray to advance to the semifinals. Even England and Bangladesh, both having earned just two points from six games, have a mathematical possibility of making it.
Sportstar takes you through the various scenarios and what each team needs to do to advance to the last four.
First, here is how the points table looks after match No. 31 between Pakistan and Bangladesh:
| Team | Played | Won | Lost | Points | Net Run Rate |
| 1. South Africa | 7 | 6 | 1 | 12 | +2.086 |
| 2. India | 6 | 6 | 0 | 12 | +1.405 |
| 3. Australia | 6 | 4 | 2 | 8 | +0.970 |
| 4. New Zealand | 7 | 4 | 3 | 8 | +0.484 |
| 5. Pakistan | 7 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -0.024 |
| 6. Afghanistan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -0.718 |
| 7. Sri Lanka | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -0.275 |
| 8. Netherlands | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -1.277 |
| 9. Bangladesh | 7 | 1 | 6 | 2 | -1.446 |
| 10. England | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1.418 |
ENGLAND
Remaining fixtures: AUS, NED, PAK
The 2023 World Cup has been nothing short of a catastrophe for the defending champion. The side has beaten Bangladesh and lost to New Zealand, South Africa, India, Afghanistan, and Sri Lanka.
With three games remaining, England has to win all three and get the maximum number of points possible, i.e., eight. Further, one or both of Australia and New Zealand have to lose all their remaining games. In addition, England has to hope the teams above it in the points table—Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, the Netherlands, and Bangladesh—manage eight points or less.
Even with all this, England will need a superior net-run rate to qualify for the semifinals. Here is a list of outcomes that give England a shot at qualifying:
- PAK vs BAN - BAN
- NZ vs SA - SA
- IND vs SL - IND
- NED vs AFG - NED
- NZ vs PAK - PAK
- ENG vs AUS - ENG
- IND vs SA - IND/SA
- BAN vs SL - SL
- AUS vs AFG - AFG
- ENG vs NED - ENG
- NZ vs SL - SL
- SA vs AFG - SA
- AUS vs BAN - BAN
- ENG vs PAK - ENG
- IND vs NED - IND
In this case, Australia, New Zealand, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, and England will have eight points each, and the two with the best net run rate will qualify.
Practically, England‘s elimination from the tournament is nearly certain. However, as Jos Buttler admitted after the loss against India, there is still much to play for the Three Lions.
BANGLADESH
Remaining fixtures: NZ, AUS
Bangladesh’s campaign started with a comfortable victory over Afghanistan but got derailed quickly after multiple batting collapses.
Shakib Al Hasan’s side is in a similar rut as England and needs other results to go its way in order to advance to the next phase of the 2023 World Cup.
The side was knocked out of the World Cup after its loss against Pakistan on Tuesday.
NETHERLANDS
Remaining fixtures: AFG, ENG, IND
The Netherlands’‘World Cup campaign came to life with its win against South Africa, and the side added a second victory in the tournament when it beat Bangladesh.
On four points from six games, the Netherlands needs to beat Afghanistan, England, and India to give itself the best shot at qualifying. The Netherlands would still have a chance to advance if New Zealand and Australia win one of their three games in hand.
The following set of results is the ideal scenario for Netherlands:
- PAK vs BAN - BAN
- NZ vs SA - SA
- IND vs SL - IND
- NED vs AFG - NED
- NZ vs PAK - PAK
- ENG vs AUS - ENG
- IND vs SA - IND/SA
- BAN vs SL - SL
- AUS vs AFG - AUS
- ENG vs NED - NED
- NZ vs SL - NZ
- SA vs AFG - SA
- AUS vs BAN - BAN
- ENG vs PAK - ENG
- IND vs NED - NED
Here, only Netherlands, Australia and New Zealand end up with 10 points. However, Netherlands will need to ensure victories by big margins to pip the other two teams on net run rate.
PAKISTAN
Remaining fixtures: NZ, ENG
After its win against Bangladesh, Pakistan moved ahead of Afghanistan into fifth place with six points. It now needs to win its remaining games to get to 10 points.
Further, at least one of New Zealand or Australia has to lose two games or more. Thirdly, Sri Lanka has to lose at least one game, preferably against lower-ranked Bangladesh.
Lastly, Afghanistan has to win only one. If it wins two, only one of Afghanistan and Pakistan will advance.
Here is how Pakistan makes it past the group stage:
- PAK vs BAN - PAK
- NZ vs SA - SA
- IND vs SL - IND
- NED vs AFG - AFG
- NZ vs PAK - PAK
- ENG vs AUS - AUS
- IND vs SA - IND/SA
- BAN vs SL - BAN
- AUS vs AFG - AUS
- ENG vs NED - ENG
- NZ vs SL - SL
- SA vs AFG - SA
- AUS vs BAN - AUS
- ENG vs PAK - PAK
- IND vs NED - IND
Here, Pakistan ends up with 10 points while New Zealand and Afghanistan have eight points each. Sri Lanka too fails to advance with six points.
SRI LANKA
Remaining fixtures: IND, BAN, NZ
Sri Lanka has four points from six games and faces tough tests ahead against India and New Zealand. It also takes on Bangladesh.
For the Lankans, the best-case scenario will be one of Australia or New Zealand losing all its games. Since it plays the Kiwis, Sri Lanka would hope they lose all their games.
For Sri Lanka to qualify, Afghanistan should not win more than one of its remaining matches.
Here is the scenario that works the best for Sri Lanka:
- PAK vs BAN - BAN
- NZ vs SA - SA
- IND vs SL - SL
- NED vs AFG - AFG
- NZ vs PAK - PAK
- ENG vs AUS - ENG
- IND vs SA - IND/SA
- BAN vs SL - SL
- AUS vs AFG - AUS
- ENG vs NED - NED
- NZ vs SL - SL
- SA vs AFG - SA
- AUS vs BAN - BAN
- ENG vs PAK - ENG
- IND vs NED - IND
This leaves Sri Lanka with 10 points, tied with Australia, and into the semifinal spots.
AFGHANISTAN
Remaining fixtures: NED, AUS, SA
The Afghans kept their chances of making the semifinals with a thumping seven-wicket win over Sri Lanka. This was the team’s third win in the tournament, which took its points tally to six.
It also meant that the top four, especially New Zealand and Australia, would be affected by Afghanistan’s results.
Three wins from the next three would take Afghanistan’s tally to 12 points. If either Australia or New Zealand loses two or more games, Afghanistan will advance to the top four. Even one defeat against Australia would assure it a place.
However, two losses would require New Zealand losing all three and Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and the Netherlands getting less than eight points for Afghanistan to qualify.
Assuming it loses to Australia and South Africa and wins against the Netherlands, here are the results Afghanistan needs to stay in the hunt:
- PAK vs BAN - BAN
- NZ vs SA - SA
- IND vs SL - IND
- NED vs AFG - AFG
- NZ vs PAK - PAK
- ENG vs AUS - AUS
- IND vs SA - IND/SA
- BAN vs SL - BAN
- AUS vs AFG - AUS
- ENG vs NED - ENG
- NZ vs SL - SL
- SA vs AFG - SA
- AUS vs BAN - AUS
- ENG vs PAK - ENG
- IND vs NED - IND
Here, New Zealand and Afghanistan end up on eight points, and the team with the superior net run rate will advance.
NEW ZEALAND
Remaining fixtures: PAK, SL
The qualification scenarios get simpler in the top half of the table, beginning with New Zealand.
The Kiwis will be a bit uneasy after their thumping loss to South Africa with Afghanistan and Pakistan breathing down their neck.
With eight points in seven games, New Zealand has to win both its games to safely advance to the semifinals with 12 points. Mathematically, even Afghanistan can match this figure with three wins. In which case, the net run rate would come into the picture.
Two losses out of three, however, will raise Afghanistan’s hopes of sneaking into the top four.
Though Australia has the same number of points as New Zealand, it enjoys an easier set of fixtures and has higher chances of getting all six points.
AUSTRALIA
Remaining fixtures: ENG, AFG, BAN
From the low of suffering its worst World Cup defeat to the high of edging out its Trans-Tasman rival in a last over thriller, Australia has been through a roller coaster ride this World Cup.
On a four game winning streak, Australia is expected to comfortably get past its three opponents and make it to the semifinals.
Two wins will suffice for the five-time champion.
SOUTH AFRICA
Remaining fixtures: IND, AFG
South Africa’s batting might has catapulted the side to the second spot with 12 points in seven games. It moved even closer to a top-four spot after a resounding win over New Zealand.
One more win out of its two games should be enough for the Proteas to go through. Only New Zealand and Afghanistan can get to 12 points. Even if South Africa loses both, its +2.086 net run rate should help it advance.
If Afghanistan loses one of its matches, South Africa will qualify.
INDIA
Remaining fixtures: SL, SA, NED
The host has been the team to beat in the World Cup and has pulled off six wins on the trot.
The only permutation preventing Rohit Sharma’s side from securing a semifinal spot is India losing all three remaining matches while Afghanistan wins its three, leaving the two tied on net run rate.
India beating Sri Lanka on November 2 or Afghanistan losing to the Netherlands on November 3 will seal India’s spot. If Afghanistan loses to Australia or South Africa later in the tournament, India will qualify.
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